Why You Shouldn't Read/Watch the Divergent Trilogy.

When the Divergent movie came out, my response was a resounding "huh." I'd read the books, and I thought they were pretty generic. I assumed it would go the way of so many adaptations before: it'd get a single movie that flopped and everyone would forget about them. But now it's gotten a second movie. And a third to complete the tri--oh, wait, no, four movies. Because of course they're splitting the last movie into two, as is popular these days.

That's when I said that it's time to speak out against this series. It's obviously more popular than I gave it credit for, and that's a bad thing, because I think the books are generic at best and ideologically dangerous at worst. So here's why you shouldn't support the Divergent Trilogy:

1. The books are generic

Remember how big Twilight got? Remember how that led to a slew of so many imitators that bookstores stocked "paranormal teen romance" sections? YA dystopias are going the same way. The popularity of The Hunger Games has led to an increased demand in the market for dystopias, and the Divergent Trilogy is just another one of these. They, unfortunately, bring very little new to the table. It's hard not to compare them to The Hunger Games, considering the first person present tense female narrator, or the "this is our world's future" premise, or the idea of people being segregated. And in the ways it, uh, "diverges" from similar stories? Genetic engineering? Wow, boring. Soooo boring.

2. The books are not well-written

It takes three books to justify the idea of splitting people into factions based on singular personality traits, and "genetic engineering" isn't really a good answer. It's a thought experiment, but one that is ultimately pointless because it's based on something that would never happen and doesn't even raise many important questions. What exactly is it trying to ask? "What do we become when we invest our identities in a single idea?" That's such an asinine question to ask. It's a flimsy premise that takes three books to get to the point, and by the time they get to the point, readers have already had two books to consider all the plot holes. The characters are largely one-dimensional by the very design of the system. Such mediocrity should not be encouraged with money.

3. It's a blatant cash-in

When the Harry Potter films the last book into two movies, they had six previous installments based on some pretty hefty books. Maybe it was an attempt to milk fans for more money, but it's just as reasonable to believe that it was an attempt to give fans a more complete experience. There were plenty of plot threads that needed wrapping up that had been built up over previous films. Since then, that's become the norm with adaptations, with movies being drug out and split into multiple parts for the sake of squeezing more money from consumers. Breaking Dawn, The Hobbit, Mockingjay...and now Allegiant. This pattern should not be supported. It's simply a way to milk a cash cow until it's dry, and filmmakers are going to continue doing it as long as we keep letting them.

4. They're ideologically dangerous

The Divergent Trilogy is mostly inoffensive for the first two books, but the third book has a lot of issues that seem downright dangerous. The plot of the third book focuses primarily on the people escaping the city discovering that being divergent marks a certain level of genetic healing, meaning those who aren't divergent aren't "healed." The scientists studying the city are considering using some sort of memory serum to reset the experiment, which understandably makes the group of escapees upset. The tone shifts to "how dare they tell us we're broken? We need to revolt!" Allegiant is very obviously aware of marginalized groups, as it includes some openly gay characters and there are themes that parallel the struggles of the gay community, but the context of the parallel and how it is ultimately handled both have major issues. First of all, the scientists are attempting to heal genetic damage, which has done major damage to the world. Most of the series up to this point has been "it's dangerous when you are reduced to just a few corruptible personality traits." But now, it's become the exact opposite: "you are fine as you are and don't let anyone else tell you differently." What happened to the earlier warnings? Have they suddenly become irrelevant? Allegiant completely ignores the possibility that who someone is could possibly be dangerous or harmful.

Secondly, the way the issue is handled is horribly dangerous and downright hypocritical. The issue is solved when the city group uses the memory serum on the scientists before they can use it on the city, and then fill in the gaps in their memories by telling them "this is what we want to do but we're going to pretend it's what you wanted to do." The message this sends is literally "if you think that a change you're attempting to affect is right, you should brainwash the people who disagree into agreeing with you." This is a terrible message to be sending. I don't have to explain why this is a dangerous ideology, do I?

And that's why you should not support the Divergent trilogy. Maybe you're still interested and want to check it out. Whatever. That's fine. I just ask that you borrow or pirate rather than give monetary support. There are certain things that should not be supported. And mediocre, money-grabbing, and ideologically dangerous series like the Divergent trilogy need to be sent messages.

TV Ramblings: Survivor Caramoan Episode 10

I didn’t think I’d be doing this again.  But last night’s episode of Survivor was just so mindblowing that I had to post about Survivor again.  I’m not going to recap who the characters are, because I’ve talked about them here already.  I’m just going to jump right in.

So the previews last week were misleading: Dawn’s breakdown was something that she managed to recover from fairly quickly in the episode.  A good night’s sleep really seemed to help.  It really didn’t seem like it had anything to do with anything else, but I’m going to talk about it just because you have to take the edit into consideration.  The Survivor editors are very good at weaving a (mostly?) organic game into a narrative with story arcs.  Dawn’s been playing a great game, but this might be hinting that she’ll be struggling with trying not to break down in the future.  Likewise, the fact that Brenda’s been so invisible the entire season (she had a confessional in the first episode, and then no more until this one) implies that Brenda’s probably not going to be around for too particularly long.  There’s no way they would give so little screentime to a winner.

At this point, I’m going to go back to Dawn for a bit: a lot of people really don’t like Dawn (I may have some slight animosity towards her since she potentially ended up replacing fellow South Dakotan Holly Hoffman on the cast).  They say that she’s a crybaby and a wuss, but I actually see that as a strength of hers.  A lot of people don’t understand just how brutal a game Survivor is.  It is full of physical, mental, and emotional stress, and I’m sure that half the contestants break down and cry at some point.  So yes, Dawn is emotional, but she’s sticking it out.  So I respect her.  Cry it out, Dawn.  I’ll still stand by you, because you’re playing a great game.

Moving on, though.  Most of the episode is a decent episode, but there’s not much to talk about.  Malcolm, Reynold, and Eddie are in a minority of 3-7, of course.  There’s that.  The real meat of this is the final tribal council.

Reynold wins individual immunity.  Malcolm has a hidden immunity idol.  Malcolm finds a second hidden immunity idol.  Everyone goes to tribal council, hands Eddie one of them, and shows everyone else his other one.  Malcolm and Eddie, who were previously the targets of a split vote (4-3-3, and even if one of them plays an idol, the other would either get voted out or they’d tie and the other would end up with four extra votes on them in a revote) are now safe—provided they actually play the idols.  Malcolm announces that the three of them will be voting for Phillip.  Phillip tells everyone to stay the course in hopes that one or both of them are bluffing and will try to hold onto the idols.  Four votes Eddie, two votes Malcolm, four votes Phillip (Erik didn’t want to risk anything and didn’t like Phillip anyway).  Eddie and Malcolm both play their idols.  Phillip goes home.

Wow.

Survivor fans might not like what I’m about to say, but I was kind of sad to see Phillip go.  I honestly believe that Phillip had done everything right this season.  He put together his alliance and remained in control of it, he attempted to bring as many people into his alliance as possible (I believe that Francesca was the only person he actually had a chance to make an alliance with that he didn’t attempt to at some point of the game), he ousted people who were disloyal, kept strong ties with people who were loyal, listened to his allies when they offered strategies opposed to his own, played as openly and straightforwardly as possible, and planned to bring Sherri (probably the person the other players liked least) as far as he could as a goat.  He was a laughingstock who got on everyone’s nerves, yes, but that could have easily worked to his advantage.  If he had made it to the final tribal council, he could have said “you might be laughing at me, and you might think I’ve been irritating, but I’ve controlled this game the entire way, and you’ve all let me control it.  You didn’t bring me to the end; you let me bring myself.  I’ve been open with all of you, and I think I played a good strategic game.”  And you know what?  I’d vote for him.  I hold by the fact that Phillip did everything right.  Even at the end, he told everyone to stay the course and call their bluff, even though he knew that it was his head on the chopping block.  He risked his own neck instead of being disloyal to all his allies by throwing one of them under the bus.  He called their bluff and he paid for it, but he’d be no better off had he turned on one of his allies.

Also, look at this secret scene where Phillip performs a monologue. Listen to it. I mean, seriously, do it. That is how we always see Phillip speaking. It sounds entirely natural, to the point where it’s hard to tell when exactly he starts it if you’re not listening for it.  Phillip is apparently a great actor, and I’m more convinced than ever that he’s just playing a character.

But enough praise for the so oft unpraised.  Let’s take a quick look at the Broliance.  Reynold has somehow had something finally go his way.  The game has been a series of unfortunate events for him, constantly being on the bottom, constantly thinking things can turn around, but watching ally after ally get voted off (the only real exception was when the Fans ousted Laura because they needed the muscle to win challenges, and you could maybe count when Brandon had his breakdown, though that was a lucky break for all the Fans).  Last night, he not only had immunity, but his allies came out unscathed and the opposition lost their figurehead.

Eddie is also getting a lucky break, but this time it’s from the editors.  I’ve perceived him as being dumb as a box of rocks all season, but between some secret scenes on the website and a better portrayal in the show itself, I’ve got a much higher opinion of him.  Sure, he’s no mastermind, and Malcolm’s obviously calling the shots in the Broliance, but he’s not just fanservice for the ladies.

And finally, Malcolm.  I don’t think that Malcolm did everything right (he tried convincing people who wouldn’t make moves to make moves), but I think he did the best he could, and the move he made last night was a wonderful one.  It was probably ultimately meaningless, as he’s still in a minority alliance that can easily be picked off even if one of them wins immunity.  I don’t think Erik is going to flip in the end, since he’s got a better chance of getting to the end with the six remaining members of Stealth ‘R’ Us than the Broliance, especially now that the former’s power structure opens up more.  Erik’s 4th place at best in the Broliance.

So here’s my predicted boot order at this point in the game:

The Brolaince is going out first, second, and fourth.  I’m taking a guess and saying that one of them wins immunity or finds another hidden immunity idol when they need it.  Third out from here is probably going to be Sherri.  Nobody really likes her, and while she could be a good goat, I don’t see her working her way into an alliance.

After that, I think that Cochran and Dawn will realize that Andrea’s their biggest competitor for jury votes and convince Brenda and Erik to take her out.  It’s at that point that Erik goes on an immunity run and wins his way into the Final Two.  Brenda, of course, gets voted out because Cochran and Dawn are a stronger pair and harder to split (plus Brenda’s edit kind of precludes her from getting much further).  I may be wrong, but unless there’s a major shakeup, I think Cochran and Dawn are in the best position to go to the end.  They were in the middle of the Stealth ‘R’ Us alliance and tried reaching out to the bottom members earlier in the game, but with two defections and Phillip’s ousting, they’re now near the top, are working together as a pair, and have close ties with those beneath them.  If they can keep Stealth ‘R’ Us together, I’d say that they’re a shoe-in for the finals.

So my boot order:

9th: Reynold
8th: Malcolm
7th: Sherri
6th: Eddie
5th: Andrea
4th: Brenda

Final 3: Erik, Dawn, Cochran

Erik hasn’t really had the chance to upset anyone, but he also hasn’t been playing very strong strategically.  His wishy-washiness will leave him in 3rd.

Dawn has been playing a good strategic game, but has played double agent and has gotten close to people before voting her out.  She’ll be commended for her strategic game, but her betrayals will cost her some votes.

I’m going to pick Cochran as my winner, just because he’s been playing a strategically strong game, and while he’s not as close to people as Dawn, he’s at least tried to reach out and have some fun with groups that he otherwise wouldn’t fit in with well (see the male bonding of last episode).  Any of his betrayals are more likely to be overlooked, and he’ll win in a strange case of his strategy flying under the radar.

So I’m sure that my boot order isn’t right, but I think it’s a good guess.  I guess I’ll just have to wait until the next few weeks to see how it turns out.

Gaming Ramblings: The Legend of Zelda 3DS

So, Nintendo revealed a thing recently….

Now, it’s no great secret that I am a Zelda fanboy.  It is my favorite game series.  But when I saw this trailer, I literally spent most of it holding my hands up to my mouth and/or going “EEEEEEEE” in high-pitched squeals.

I’m just going to take a few moments to fanboy over why this is so amazing.

First: it takes place in the same world as A Link to the Past but with a completely separate story and design.  Obviously, most of the games take place in Hyrule, so they’re probably referring to the same incarnation of Hyrule as the one displayed in A Link to the Past.  This means one of two things: either it is directly linked to A Link to the Past somehow (and is consequently the first game specifically designed to be part of that particular Zelda timeline—there are currently canonically three of them), or it takes place in a different alternate timeline.  Either way, there’s plenty of opportunity to flesh out that particular timeline’s story and world.

Second: It is a top-down Zelda.  My first four Zelda games were Oracle of Ages, Oracle of Seasons, Minish Cap, and A Link to the Past, which were also all top-down games.  These are the games that got me into the series.  These are the games that contain the classic block puzzles.  Don’t get me wrong, the 3D games (by which I mean the ones that use XYZ directional axes as opposed to just XY ones—it’s an odd dichotomy where the first original 3D Zelda is a 2D one) are good and have clever puzzles, but there’s just something to the nature of the 2D puzzles that I love.  Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks for the DS pretended to be this, but ultimately weren’t.  It was like they were a 2D representation of the 3D games.  They just didn’t have the same flavor, and I yearned to play one again.  Well, I’m getting my wish.  I was worried that the 2D Zelda formula was dead, and Ocarina of Time 3D only reinforced that worry.  This video?  Completely reassured me.  2D Zelda is not dead.  They’re just making it better.

Third: It releases THIS YEAR!  I can be playing this game this holiday season!  Wow!  I am getting so hyped right now.  Seriously.

Fourth: The game mechanics they showed look cool.  The transformation into what looks like some sort of hieroglyph (or should I say Hyruleglyph?) in particular looks like it has a ton of potential as a game mechanic, allowing for real brainteasers of puzzles. It’s a new sort of Zelda puzzle: one that the series has never used before, but one that fits in perfectly.

And now for the one complaint I do have: the graphics look sub-par.  I’m normally not a graphics guy, but already they look kind of disappointing.  Link and the enemies look a little too much like plastic inflatables, and it already looks dated.  Too soon to make a judgment, and I really don’t care as long as the gameplay is good, but it’s detracting from my enthusiasm a little.

But just a little.

Because, come on.  This is the Zelda I’ve been yearning for since 2005, when they released The Minish Cap.  It’s a new top-down Zelda that remains true to the roots of the series and utilizes the advances in technology made since then.  There is no reason for me not to be excited.

TV Ramblings: Survivor Caramoan, Episode 9

So I watch Survivor.

I don’t really watch reality TV.  I’ve just been watching Survivor from Episode 2 of Season 1.  It really rises and dips in quality.  Everyone watched the first season.  Then everyone stopped watching around season 4 and 5.    Then people started watching for a few more seasons after that, then stopped watching again…basically the series has a lot of ups and downs.  There were a lot of downs recently.  Season 22 (Redemption Island) and 23 (South Pacific) were really predictable and boring, and 24 (One World) wasn’t really all that great.

But now we’re experiencing some more ups.  25 (Philippines) was a great season with a lot of likeable characters and great story arcs, and it ended up having one of the greatest episodes of the entire series.  The current season, 26 (Caramoan: Fans vs. Favorites) has been kind of hit and miss, but the wheels are starting to roll and I’m really starting to enjoy it.  Of course, it’s kind of hard to tell who’s with who, so I’m going to sort of just talk my way through it to figure it out.  This post is consequently largely written for my sake.

This is the part where people who aren’t watching the current season, and especially people who don’t watch Survivor in general might want to stop watching because I’m going to be talking about characters and a game you know nothing about.  But hey, if you want to hear me ramble and listen to me overthink things, read on.

So we’ve got ten characters left.  Yes, characters.  They’re real people, but they’re also playing a game and being edited in certain ways.  They’re characters.  And these characters, along with a brief summary and their general allegiance are:

Sherri – Fan.  Led a strong alliance that was completely destroyed at the tribe swap.  Joined the Favorites’ “Stealth ‘R’ Us” alliance to keep herself in the game a bit longer.

Phillip – Favorite, Redemption Island.  Loony alleged “Former Federal Agent” who set up the Stealth ‘R’ Us alliance and leads it.  And older black man who talks big but can’t play big.  Idolizes “Boston” Rob Mariano, who he played with last time, and plays by his “BR Rules.”

Andrea – Favorite, Redemption Island.  Played with Phillip before, is currently his #2.

Malcolm – Favorite, Philippines.  Jumped ship from Stealth ‘R’ Us and started organizing an alliance of strong guys.

Eddie – Fan.  Very pretty.  Doesn’t appear to have much going on upstairs.  Part of Malcolm’s Broliance.

Erik – Favorite, Micronesia (the first Fans vs. Favorite season, in which he was a fan). Very quiet, doesn’t like to talk strategy at all. Malcolm attempted to rope him into the Broliance, but I don’t think he’s voted with them yet.

Reynold – Fan.  Has been a victim of a series of unlucky breaks, and has only survived through a series of lucky breaks.  Part of Malcolm’s Broliance.

Cochran – Favorite, South Pacific.  Nerdy mastermind wannabe.  He and Dawn are probably 3rd and 4th in the Stealth ‘R’ Us alliance, and they’re both sort of playing a “behind-the-scenes” game in terms of strategy.

Dawn – Favorite, South Pacific.  See above.  Dawn tends to be highly emotional.  This is probably why people keep trusting her, at which point she tattles on them and gets them voted out.  Seriously, rule #1 this season seems to be “don’t tell Dawn the plan.”  And yet everyone still does.

Brenda – Favorite, Nicaragua.  Um…sorry, who?  No, seriously, she’s been invisible practically all season.

There was also Michael, a fan, who got voted off this episode.  But we won’t go into him since I’ve already spoiled that he’s gone so he won’t come across as much more than cannon fodder.

So.  This episode.

The previous episode, Corinne (a member of Stealth ‘R’ Us who was Malcolm’s closest ally and absolutely loathed Phillip) got voted out.  She and Malcolm’s Broliance would have managed to vote out Sherri, but Corinne opened her mouth to Dawn (making her into the target), Sherri knew she was gone unless she joined Stealth ‘R’ Us, and Erik decided that no, he wasn’t part of the Broliance after all.

So at the start of Episode 9, the alliances look something like this.

The Broliance: Malcolm, Eddie, Reynold.

Stealth ‘R’ Us: Phillip, Andrea, Cochran, Dawn, Brenda, Sherri.

Unattatched: Erik (seems to be tagging along with Stealth ‘R’ Us), Michael (seems to be tagging along with the Broliance).

At the reward challenge, all the guys sans Phillip end up winning reward.  Malcolm is still under the impression that Erik is supposed to be in the Broliance, and Michael doesn’t really have anyone else he could go to.  So those five try to pull in Cochran by saying that the muscle should go to the end since it’s usually women that are able to pull off a win.  They make the mistake of saying that to Cochran, a pasty ginger geek (meant affectionately; that’s why we love him) who tends to get physically outperformed by most women.  Cochran is not “muscle.”  Cochran remains unconvinced.

We also find out that Andrea and Eddie are starting to click.  This is good news for Eddie since it means that he’s being shown as more than a box of rocks stored inside the head of a body.  Unfortunately, Andrea and Eddie are not on the same alliance.  We’ve got a bit of a star-crossed lovers theme going here.  I have to admit, I rolled my eyes when it was teased in last week’s previews, but I’m enjoying the concept because it’s something the show’s never really had.  Neither alliance is changing because it’s not a good strategic choice, but they’re both trying to keep each other around longer.

Brenda wins immunity.  Hooray.  Unfortunately, she is not given a confessional at all.  The Survivor community is stunned, as normally immunity winners get confessionals and Brenda has gone most episodes without a single one.

So at this point, the plan is for Phillip, Andrea, Dawn, Cochran, Sherri, Brenda, and presumably Malcolm and Erik to split the vote between Reynold and Eddie 4-4.  That way, they don’t risk any of their members with the 3 votes coming back at them, and they lose Eddie or Reynold whether one of them plays a hidden immunity idol or not.  Andrea is not fond of this because there’s a chance it takes out Eddie, and she confirms that if it’s a tie and no idol is played, they vote out Reynold.

Malcolm knows that his Broliance currently consists of four votes, to the six of Stealth ‘R’ Us (and who knows where Erik falls in this?).  The Broliance also has two hidden immunity idols (though Malcolm is the only one who knows about his own), but that involves knowing who’s getting voted for so you know who’s going to play the idol.  Malcolm and Reynold both try to rope in Dawn, because people haven’t yet realized that you do not try to flip Dawn, and Reynold shows her that she has an idol.  Dawn, true to form, informs her alliance instead of flipping.  The target is changed from splitting the votes between Eddie and Reynold to voting for Malcolm (since they now know that they don’t have his vote).  Malcolm then decides to target Andrea.

So now the vote is four to Andrea, and presumably seven to Malcolm.  Maybe a split between Malcolm and Reynold.  I’m not sure; I’d have to rewatch the episode.

However, Eddie gets suspicious that Malcolm may have an idol and tells her this.  Wow.  Okay, potentially a dumb move strategically, since he’s basically selling his alliance out for her, but if he plans on working with her long-term (a pair can be very powerful in the game) that’s a good move.  That, and he’s acting on some very good instincts.  So Eddie’s maybe smarter than he seems to be.  This episode completely changed my opinion of the guy.

Andrea realizes that if an idol is played, she’s the one going home.  So she attempts to change the target to Michael.  We don’t see the conclusion of this for a while (but since I’ve spoiled the outcome it’s obvious that that’s what happens)

So now the vote is seven to Michael (or Malcolm?), four to Andrea.

Tribal council happens, and Phillip starts gabbing like Phillip does, taking the Stealth out of Stealth ‘R’ Us, going on about who’s in the alliance, and more specifically, the fact that someone from the alliance is untrustworthy.  Something like that, I don’t remember the exact words.  The gist of it is that it’s very clearly an allusion to Malcolm.

So they vote.  Malcolm votes for Reynold, assuming that Reynold would play his idol and he could keep his deception up for a bit longer.  But when the time comes to vote, he second-guesses himself, and makes what would have been an amazing play if it had worked out.

Malcolm realizes that the cat is out of the bag and that Phillip was talking about him.  He believes himself to be the target of the vote, and as Reynold stands to play his idol, he outs himself by standing up and and telling Reynold that he’s the target and to give it to him instead.

Now, had Eddie not believed Malcolm might have an idol, the vote would have been for Malcolm.  Malcolm’s instincts would have been right, and he would have saved Reynold and himself, as well as convincing everyone that the idols were out of play.  He still did that, but unfortunately, the target was Michael, meaning that the Broliance is both out of the closet and down a member.

So now some number crunching:

Erik has stayed with Stealth ‘R’ Us so far, but I still can’t count him one way or another, as even if he was in in the plan, he might have tried staying undercover like Malcolm originally did.  But everyone else seems to be pretty solid, and Malcolm’s Broliance has been outed.  So the numbers stand as such, in rough order of standing within the alliance.

Broliance: Malcolm, Reynold, and Eddie, plus an immunity idol.

Stealth ‘R’ Us: Phillip, Andrea, Cochran, Dawn, Brenda, Sherri.

And now a few reflections: first, Malcolm has made it clear that he is no longer part of Stealth ‘R’ Us.  However, he has also made it clear that he does not have a hidden immunity idol, as he asked Reynold for his.  Naturally, he actually does have one, but now it’s a secret and, if he can play it right, a vote in his favor.  Malcolm made a very good move that did not turn out as planned.  However, it’s a move that he might be able to recover from, since he still has an ace up his sleeve.  Also, wonderful trust on Reynold’s part, especially since Malcolm himself voted for him.

Second, Stealth ‘R’ Us made a good move.  They flushed an idol without it backfiring by targeting the weakest appendage of the Broliance instead of its head.  Phillip in particular made some wonderful misdirection.  Perhaps the Stealth ‘R’ Us speech was to make everyone think he was giving too much away, and to try to force an idol from Malcolm if he did have one.  If so, it was a very good misdirection, and Phillip is perhaps saner than he appears to be.  In fact, at this point, I think he may actually have a shot to win.  No one takes him seriously (his antics have even been taken up a notch from his last season), so they’re letting him control the game.  They don’t want to vote him out since he’d make such a great goat at the end.  However, if he can make it to the final tribal council and make an argument about how, despite the fact that everyone was laughing at him behind his back, he was still in complete control of the game, he might have a shot.  I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Phillip has a shot at the million.

Finally, Eddie and Andrea will probably be trying to protect each other as long as they can.  That may affect their votes.

So, let’s look at votes in the future.  The obvious first target for Stealth ‘R’ Us is Malcolm.  Malcolm probably knows this and can probably use that to his advantage at the next tribal council.  In fact, probably the worst thing that Malcolm could do next week is win immunity.  That forces him to reveal his idol to Eddie or Reynold, and he’d have to know which one to use it for.  They targeted Andrea this week, so Malcolm will probably target her next week as well.  Unless Eddie and Reynold both choose a different target, Eddie can’t save her.

The Broliance and Stealth ‘R’ Us currently sit at three against six, respectively.  Erik could fall on either side.  He is literally the only player I cannot figure out.  The previews teased a Dawn meltdown next week, so it’s possible that she’s going home.  So if Dawn quits and Malcolm takes out Andrea, that puts the numbers at 3-4.

Erik could join the three, evening the odds.  But he’s still near the bottom of either alliance.  Personally, I think that it’d be smarter for him to stick with Stealth ‘R’ Us.  The problem with a Broliance that’s openly together and in the minority, however, is that only one person can win individual immunity. Erik is a strong physical competitor.  If he joins the Broliance, that puts him up against three other strong competitors in the end, and puts a target on his own back.  If he joins Stealth ‘R’ Us, that puts him up against two small, older woman (Dawn and Sherri), a woman with a knee injury (Brenda), an older man who’s more talk than muscle (Phillip), and Cochran (Cochran).  Assuming that Malcolm takes someone out with his idol and another member of Stealth ‘R’ Us leaves the game (the schedule implies a double-elimination episode, so someone leaving the game is almost a given), that gives him the numbers to take out his physical competition (if one wins immunity, the other two are still targets) and puts him about 5th in Stealth ‘R’ Us.  Assuming the Broliance is targeted first (they’re both an opposing alliance and immunity threats), that at least one member of Stealth ‘R’ Us leaves the game or gets voted out, and that the final tribal council is a final 3, that puts Erik about 5th or 6th, meaning that he only has to win two or three immunities against a group where his only major competitor in strength and speed would be Andrea.

At this point, Malcolm, Reynold, Eddie, and Sherri have no chance at winning.  They Broliance is doomed, and Sherri’s nothing more than a pawn with no one who would vote for her.  Brenda’s been incredibly invisible, is injured (meaning she’s not much of an immunity threat) and is near the bottom of the Stealth ‘R’ Us alliance, so that’s unlikely as well.  Assuming Dawn’s breakdown doesn’t take her out of the game, that leaves Phillip, Andrea, Erik, Cochran, and Dawn in the running.  I think that, if the circumstances are right, any one of those five has a shot at winning.

There.  Now I know what’s going on.  Maybe.